It looks like Trump is serious about deporting undocumented immigrants. His choice of leadership for this task includes a former head of ICE, infamous for separating parents and their children.
So, how do we understand the size, complexity, and potential consequences of his deportation plan?
Some Facts and Assumptions
The generally accepted number of undocumented immigrants is around 11 million.
He promises all will be gone before the end of his term, but let’s say he only deports 50% in four years. That still means deporting 5.5 million people in that period.
That’s 1,375,000 per year, or 3,767 per day, assuming ICE will maintain that daily number every single day of the year.
Assuming each plane will hold around 250 people, including 20 guards, the deportation effort will require 16+ planes per day, every day.
Several airports will need to be used for these flights, meaning ICE must arrest, detain, process, transport (from multiple locations to each airport), and feed at least 3,767 people daily.
Complexity
Aircraft Availability: Where will the U.S. government find 16 available planes each day?
Airport Logistics: Will U.S. commercial airports have the capacity to house detainees under close ICE supervision for periods ranging from hours to days, 365 days per year? Or will military airfields handle the process?
Military Impact: If deportations occur at military installations, how will this affect U.S. military preparedness?
Specialized Staffing: The effort will require:
Specialists who speak the many languages found in this community.
Trained interrogators with expertise in multiple systems to verify immigration status.
Legal representatives to advocate for detainees and government lawyers to certify the identity, nationality, and legal status of each person being deported.
Coordination to keep family units intact by detaining spouses and minors together.
Transportation: Detainees will need to be separated by country of destination and transported to the appropriate airport or plane.
International Permissions: The U.S. government must secure permission to enter sovereign airspace and land planes at each destination.
Documentation Issues: Many detainees may not have their original passports, making the acceptance process by their countries of origin more challenging.
Mexico Deportations: If roughly half of the 11 million deportees are returned to Mexico, this will require flights to border locations and subsequent ground transportation into Mexico.
Consequences
Tax Revenue Loss:Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022. Of that amount:
$59.4 billion was paid to the federal government.
$37.3 billion was paid to state and local governments.
Removing 11 million undocumented immigrants would create a substantial hole in tax revenues.
Economic Decline:
Businesses in communities with significant undocumented immigrant populations will face a sharp drop in income as immigrants will no longer purchase food, clothing, gas, and other necessities.
Communities with concentrated immigrant labor, such as farms, meat processing plants, construction sites, and property maintenance businesses, will struggle to replace workers in these physically demanding, often dangerous jobs.
Labor Shortages:
With historically low unemployment, it’s unlikely that sufficient U.S. citizens will fill these roles.
Areas relying heavily on service workers (e.g., Western North Carolina) will face challenges in maintaining service quality, negatively impacting business profitability.
Cost:
The estimated financial cost of this deportation effort exceeds $80 billion annually.
A Final Thought
This is a quick look at the potential logistics of rounding up, housing, feeding, and transporting 11 million people, along with a summary of the anticipated impacts.
For me, the real questions are:
Will the Trump administration truthfully account for the actual numbers deported?
Will we know the cost?
Will the government assess and report the impact on those deported?
What will be the economic repercussions for U.S. communities left with labor shortages and population losses?
Trump has never accepted responsibility for his actions, so we can expect deflection and blame-shifting.
I’d love to hear your thoughts, observations, and suggestions about this process and its potential challenges. I’m confident there are many more consequences to consider, so feel free to share your ideas.
All the best,
Joe
Reader Commentary: Reflections on the Questions
We received insightful reflections from one of our readers that expand on the critical questions raised in this blog. Here are some of their thought-provoking comments:
Reader Response from Diane
Will the Trump administration truthfully account for the actual numbers deported? No, I doubt their employees will be as efficient as the Nazi Germany record keepers, who were proud of their efforts. If they do "report" numbers, they will likely be exaggerated.
Will we know the cost? Of course not. Lies are the staple for the Project 2025 adherents. They will try to prove how "efficient" they are.
Will the government assess and report the impact on those deported? Assess and report? No, they will lie. They will exaggerate their "successes" and deny any "failures," blaming the latter on Democrats or "the deep state."
What will be the economic repercussions for U.S. communities left with labor shortages and population losses? Significant, as you pointed out. However, in the 20th century, starting in the 1930s, when deportations occurred, agribusinesses petitioned for exceptions. I am certain they are doing so already, especially if they filled Trump's coffers.
Other questions arise: What about all the undocumented immigrant healthcare workers in hospitals and retirement homes, or childcare helpers?What about the physical and mental health of immigrants "rounded up and placed in holding facilities"? Will Homeland Security officials oversee their health? They are required to by law. Mothers giving birth, influenza, COVID-19, and other contagious disease outbreaks?
U.S. bureaucracy works slowly. There are papers to file, lawsuits to respond to, and roadblocks—both physical and legal—placed by churches and humanitarian groups. Even inclement weather can gum up the process. However, Trumpists will likely ignore all of this, act quickly, and disregard the consequences.
The U.S. economy is part of a global economy, which is why the incoming administration needs to recognize this. Isolation is cheap to espouse verbally but enormously costly in practice. Wall Street and U.S.-owned international businesses of all kinds will start complaining that their supply and worker chains are disrupted. Even the AARP could protest about how the health of its constituents is jeopardized.
How long can you run (or ruin) a country on hatred, ignorance, and petty retribution? It is all troubling, terribly troubling. We now have to think in a different way. The usual questions one would ask a government agency and expect answers to will no longer be a reality. A final question: How do we change our questioning strategies to deal with the incoming administration?